Superior European Stayers?

One aspect of racing in Australia that has always astounded me is the cultural cringe that Australians have regarding the ability of our stayers. Many Australians are in awe of the ability of European horses over a staying trip and continually plunge their money on the UK raiders in the Melbourne Cup with the belief that the UK horses are better stayers.

Many of the European horses that come for the Melbourne Cup are used to running at 3200m or longer, at a very leisurely pace before taking off at the 800m mark. They are usually against small fields on huge tracks with plenty of room. These horses are typically a plugging type of horse that would be more suited to the Adelaide Cup or perhaps the Sydney Cup.

The best 2000-2400m horses from Europe are not always considered for a trip to the Melbourne Cup, just as the best 2000-2400m Australian horses are not always considered for the Melbourne Cup. That has changed recently with more locals taking on the Melbourne Cup once they have been proven over 2000-2400m. Perhaps the British may adopt a similar attitude though it is hard to envisage this happening as they have a tendency to turn their noses up at a handicap over 2 miles.

For the purposes of this article I will start at 1993 even though there was the odd European horse racing in the Melbourne Cup before that. I will start from this date as it was the year that a horse trained in the UK (Vintage Crop) won the Cup.

The track that day was heavy, conditions that suited Vintage Crop. However, Vintage Crop was a horse of good credentials. Before the Melbourne Cup he had 15 starts for 9 wins including a Group 1 in the Irish St Leger over 2800m where he beat Drum Taps by just under 10 lengths which was the last start for both horses before the Melbourne Cup. Drum Taps was the other UK raider that year and started 2nd favourite when beaten just over 10 lengths in the Melbourne Cup. Drum Taps had 21 starts before the Melbourne Cup for 11 wins including 2 Group 1’s, 2 Group 2’s and 4 Group 3’s.

If we take a look at the local contenders, 2nd was Te Akau Nick. An honest performer who had 14 starts before the Melbourne Cup for 4 wins including one Group 1 (the Metropolitan). 3rd was Mercator who had 28 starts before the Melbourne Cup for 5 wins, the best a Group 2 at Riccarton in NZ. Local favourite was Our Pompeii (14th) who had 25 starts for 4 wins including the Group 1 Adelaide double of Derby and Cup as a 3yo. Hardly form that would make you rush in and back the locals.

I will not go through every year but there is a pattern that is repeated throughout the rest of the 1990’s and into the 21st Century. The Europeans have sent, mostly, well performed staying horses (greater than 3000m) and they have performed against local horses that were not considered our best at 2400m or less. When the locals have been represented by a horse that can be considered as one of the top horses in Australasia at around the 2000-2400m mark, they invariably win it, no matter how good the foreign contingent. For instance, Might And Power, Saintly, Ethereal and Makybe Diva 3 times (I know she was bred in the UK but breeding has become a worldwide industry. Her mare was from US, bred to a sire with an American sireline, born in England but did all her early racing in Australia. Media Puzzle was bred to an American mare mated to a sire with an American sireline, born in the US but did all his early racing in UK.).

Vinnie Roe was considered the best UK stayer at longer than 2800m and had the record to prove it. In his 1st attempt at the Melbourne Cup in 2004, the track was rated dead but a huge storm hit the track in the lead up to the Cup and it was run in very wet conditions-probably a heavy track (and the overall time reflects this). In conditions that were made to suit, he was still beaten by Makybe Diva by over a length. In 2005 on what would now be rated as a dead 4 track (almost good) he was beaten 5.5 lengths into 8th spot. Makybe Diva won again. 3rd and 4th were Xcellent and Leica Falcon, two lightly raced 4yo’s that were building an imposing record at around the 2000-2400m mark. This was a year where a UK horse stood little chance as there was depth to the Australasian challengers. Vinnie Roe was 1st home of the UK Raiders.

There will still be years when the local horses aren’t good enough to extend to the 3200m and the European horses could be in with a chance. 2006 was a chance for the Europeans but the Japanese took control. The retirement of Makybe Diva and the long term injuries to Xcellent and Leica Falcon left a gaping hole in the depth of Australian horses at 2000-2400m, that were capable of extending to 3200m. The local list of stayers was weak but it is interesting to note that if you take out the Japanese quinella, then the 1st two home were Australians (Maybe Better and Zipping).

In the 14 runnings of the Melbourne Cup since 1993 there have been a total of 48 European trained runners for 2 wins, 3 2nds and 5 3rds. But also 22 that have failed to finish in the top 10. Failure to acclimatise is often used as an excuse. This can be valid for a particular horse but is an over-used excuse to cover up for the failings of a racehorse. There are a number of trainers that have had more than 1 runner and know what it takes to prepare horses for overseas campaigns. Statistics tell a valid story and should compensate for those horses that failed to acclimatise. The mean finishing position for the 48 runners is just under 11th and the median finishing position is 8.5.

(Comparatively, Australians feel that their horses have an edge in sprinting ability, but raw statistics do not entirely bear that out. Since 2003 when Choisir and Belle Du Jour contested Group 1 sprints in the UK, there have been 12 Australians contest Group 1 sprints in England for 1 win, 2 2nds and a 3rd. The average finishing position is 8.5 and the median is 9.5. It is a much smaller sample and whilst the win/place strike rate is superior to the European horses in the Melbourne Cup, the average finishing positions are similar. It must also be remembered that we do send the best sprinters to England.)

Before the 2006 Cup Kieran Fallon, the jockey of Yeats, was supremely confident and stated that Yeats had never been in better condition. This does not sound like a statement about a horse that failed to acclimatise. By what Fallon had said, Yeats was ready to run the race of his life and probably ran up to his best in finishing 7th. It is interesting to note that after the race Fallon stated that Yeats was not the type of horse suited to the Melbourne Cup. This was a statement made possibly to cover up his ordinary ride but would have been made after Fallon had seen the pace and tightness of Australian racing.

It can be argued that the best European horses do not come down to contest the Melbourne Cup. The best European horses will contest the Arc in France and perhaps go to the Breeders Cup in the US, Dubai World Cup meeting or Hong Kong International Day. The horses that are rated as the best from the UK are horses running around the 2000-2400m mark.

However amongst the beaten brigade in Melbourne Cup’s have been:

• Oscar Schindler (15th in 1996) who ran a gallant 3rd in the Arc at his start prior to the Melbourne Cup beaten only by the champion performers Helissio and Pilsudski. He ran in the Arc again the following year and finished an honest 4th again beaten by champions in Peintre Celebre and Pilsudski.
• Razkalla (9th in 2004) who was twice beaten 2 lengths in the Dubai Sheema Classic over 2400m when finishing 4th in 2004 and 2nd in 2005.
• Yeats (7th in 2006) who had beaten Alkaased by 2.5 lengths in the 2005 Coronation Cup over 2400m. At his next 4 starts Alkaased won the Group 1 Grand Prix in France over 2400m beating Bago (2004 Arc winner) by 4 lengths and Elvstroem by 4.3 lengths. Alkaased then finished 2.5 lengths 2nd in a Group 2 French race behind champion mare Pride-winner of 3 Group 1’s in 3 different countries plus a close 2nd in an Arc. 2 starts later Alkaased won the Japan Cup beating the well performed locals Heart’s Cry and Zenno Rob Roy as well as champion Europeans Ouija Board and Bago.

Currently the only turf races around the world where horses from more than a couple of countries assemble to take each other on over 2400m are the Dubai Sheema Classic, the Arc in France, the HK Vase and to a lesser extent the Breeders Cup Turf in US. The form from these races is very similar and what the results show, is that over the last 12 months is, there is not a lot between the top 2 or 3 from each race. (Hurricane Run ran in the Arc and Breeders, Scorpion ran in both the Breeders and Vase and Red Rocks ran in both the Sheema and the Breeders). One of these horses was Vengeance Of Rain who won the Dubai Sheema Classic and was bred in NZ and did his early racing in Australia. It must be remembered that Vengenace of Rain is nowhere near the horse he was in 2005 before he had problems which put him off the scene for almost 11 months.

The perceived strength of the European stayers comes from worldwide ratings authorities which have a distinct bias towards northern hemisphere racing. The Arc is always rated highest out of these events. There seems to be no regard for the relative strength of the field. The Cox Plate is always rated many lengths below this. Is it any wonder why Australians have an inferiority complex regarding the strength of our 2000m plus horses. It would be ludicrous to suggest that every Cox Plate winner would beat every Arc winner if they met in that year but I believe that over a 20 year period there would be little superiority either way. There are only two Australasians I can think of to run in the Arc. First was Balmerino who never won a Cox Plate and his best victory in Australia was the Brisbane Cup, but he finished 2nd to the great Alleged in the 1977 Arc. The second was Strawberry Road in 1984 who finished 5th behind horses like Sagace and All Along. It is a hypothetical but I imagine that Cox Plate winners such as Kingston Town, Better Loosen Up, Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Makybe Diva and possibly Bonecrusher would have been more than competitive in an Arc over 2400m.

If the winners of the highest rating 2000-2400m race from each major country were to line up against each other, the winner would most likely be the horse suited by the pace scenario that was given the best ride and having the most luck in running. It would be a close finish. If a horse put a margin on the rest of the field then it could be said that the country that it came from had the highest rating race. Unfortunately we do not see this scenario and have to rely on, mostly inflexible, hypothetical ratings. There are years where you can say that the Australian representative would have little chance but it will be just as likely that the representative from the UK would be no chance for similar reasons.

The lesson to be learnt is that you should never consider a horse a superior stayer because it comes from the UK or Europe. A horse is rated superior on ratings scales around the world if it wins a big race in the northern hemisphere but this is due to the bias in an antiquated system of rating racehorses from different countries. Reputation means nothing on a racetrack.

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