Brisbane to Sydney and Melbourne.

The main part of the Brisbane carnival is over and we now look forward to the Sydney and then Melbourne spring carnivals. The question that needs to be asked is whether there are any performers from the Brisbane carnival that can go on and compete in the major spring races in Melbourne.

Queensland Oaks: Won impressively by Eskimo Queen. Eskimo Queen showed tactical speed from the barrier and settled in a handy position. She was then moved wide as they straightened, balanced up, accelerated and easily accounted for her rivals to win by 3.5 lengths. Her opposition were not great but did include the AJC Oaks winner, Rena’s Lady and Rose of Sharon and My Lady’s Chamber who have both placed in black type events in Sydney. Eskimo Queen backed up in the Derby and was unfortunately galloped on and dislodged her jockey. I believe she would have won fairly comfortably. At her previous start she settled well back before storming home for a 3rd beaten by a long neck. Ethereal raced in both the Doomben Roses and the Oaks (winning both) in similar fashion before winning the Cups double in the spring. Ethereal did show marked improvement as most 3yo fillies usually improve after a winter in Brisbane and if Eskimo Queen improves in the normal fashion she looks a chance in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

Queensland Derby: Won by Empires Choice, this was a dour affair that became a real slog in slow going. Even allowing for the conditions the last 600m was run in just under 40 seconds (the slowest by far of the day) and the overall time was a slow 2.32.98. In my assessments, a Group 1 horse in similar conditions would have run their last 600m in approximately 3.5 seconds faster which equates to around 20 lengths. That’s a lot of improvement before they get warm in a Caulfield or Melbourne Cup race. In fact I’d be surprised if any runner from the Derby can finish in the top 10 of either of the big cups during the spring.

Brisbane Cup: Won by Newport by the barest of margins. This was run at a fast pace and set up for the backmarkers. Newport finished well along the inside and Lilakyn stormed home down the outside. 3rd and 4th placed Ice Chariot and Mirkola Lass respectively also came from well back. This was an ordinary race with the first seven separated by 1.5 lengths. This form will be weak and again I’d be surprised if any of the starters in the Brisbane Cup could manage a top 10 finish in one of the big spring cups in Melbourne.

Other honourable and dishonourable mentions.

Bentley Biscuit: This horse has finally learnt what racing is all about. His effort to beat Takeover Target in the Group 1 BTC Sprint over 1200m was enormous. He settled last and just when Takeover Target asserted his authority over the rest of the field Bentley Biscuit rattled along the inside to score narrowly but impressively. He has now won 3 straight Group 1’s and his next start will be in England. Should he return for the Sydney carnival he will be very hard to beat. Melbourne is a different question as he was less than average in his 2 anti-clockwise attempts in the Melbourne spring. Whether this was from immaturity or getting on the wrong leg is an answer only time will answer.

Gold Edition: A lot has been said about this filly and to what level she can reach, having not won an open age group race as yet. This filly is a speed machine. It has now been shown that she cannot extend that speed to 1600m and I would be surprised if she was tried over anything longer than 1400m in the future. Her performance in the Stradbroke was close to brilliant. It did however suggest that in a true Group 1 event over 1400m she will struggle to win as she did fade slightly towards the end. The field was at best the equivalent to a southern state Group 2 event. I still believe she would have gone closer had she been aimed wider as she came around the turn and in to the better going. She has the potential to win many open Group 1’s over 1200m and Group 1’s up to 1400m against mares. However, I genuinely believe she can win an open Group 1 over 1400m. Perhaps one early in the season (Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield?) when the cups horses are warming up and there is very little substance in the 1400m horses opposing her.

Reigning To Win: He has promised so much and has been touted as a Group 1 performer but I have always had a slight doubt on him. My doubts were multiplied when he won narrowly from Raheeb and Sirmione in the Doomben Classic over 1615m. In Sydney Raheeb was at best a Listed race performer whilst Sirmione has been disappointing until striking Group 3 classes for 3yo’s in Brisbane. Taking a line through the form of the placegetters it was obvious that Reigning To Win would struggle in higher classes. This was then confirmed in his failure in the Group 1 Doomben Cup and then the Group 1 Stradbroke. Plenty of excuses were made but the truth is that he will struggle to win a Group race in Melbourne. In Sydney, the competition may be easier and he may get a chance there.

Sniper’s Bullet: His win in the Stradbroke was impressive. He was the only horse to make good ground in picking up the leader in Gold Edition and beat her comfortably in the end. He has been mentioned as a possible Cox Plate contender. On face value the effort looked good but on closer evaluation, I feel the form from the Stradbroke may not prove overly strong. Sniper’s Bullet seemingly got out into the better going and finishing within 5 lengths of him were horses like Benedetti, Mr Ubiquitous, Nova Star, Hard To Catch, Black Ink and Stormhill. Whilst not wanting to denigrate these honest performers, they are hardly group 1 standard for the southern states, let alone Cox Plate standard. On the positive side is that he is only a 3yo and will surely show further improvement. 2000m is a query although he does race as though it will suit him. Whilst he wouldn’t be in my top 10 picks at the moment for the Cox Plate, if he improves enough as he matures he may at least make the field and give a good account of himself. The jury is still out on him and his reappearance in the spring should point us in the right direction.

2yo’s: I don’t believe that any of the 2yo’s contesting the Group 1 TJ Smith, Group 2 Sires and Champagne Classic won respectively by Apercu, Masked Assassin and Keiki can measure up to the southern state 2yo’s. I would conservatively place them at least 5 lengths behind the best that was seen in the Autumn Sydney carnival but it would be closer to 10 lengths. The 2yo crop that was seen in Sydney and Melbourne look to have the most potential for many a year and the lot that raced in Brisbane are the best of the rest but a long way from the top. The transition from 2yo to 3yo can be a hard one to predict but I’d be surprised if the Brisbane carnival lot can mix it down south.