With 2 weeks out from the Slipper, it is time to update my post from the 19th February 2007.
Saturday at Rosehill was supposed to clear the Slipper chances. It has done the exact opposite. The fillies race left me perplexed. What seemed a race with plenty of speed ended up being a stroll. Run slow enough to be a considered a glorified barrier trial. They ran their first 600m in 36.7 and flew home the last 600m in 33.8 sec on a track rated dead. You didn't have to look at the stopwatch though. You only had to see Miss Watagan being pulled back hard in the lead. Just off her, Mimi Lebrock was being held back tightly and the speedy Illuminates didn't want to take up the running.
As mentioned in my previous article "Re-cap on Super Saturday" when there is such a slow pace the best horses do not necessarily win. This was supposed to be the opportunity to see how the old Sydney and Magic Millions form (Mimi Lebrock) lined up against the Melbourne form (Sleek Chassis) and the recent Sydney form (Forensics). Instead these 3 finished 3rd, 4th and 5th behind Press The Button and Hurried Choice. All five finished within 1.2 Lengths. What does this tell us? Basically we should forget the race as a form reference unfortunately. It has only told us which horse can sprint fastest off a slow speed.
Two races later the Colts & Geldings had their turn and this was going to help us line up the Sydney (Shaft) and Melbourne form (Zizou). Unfortunately, the weather had turned by this race and the rain was falling quite heavily with a very strong wind. It would have been uncomfortable conditions for relatively inexperienced youngsters. Relying on times, as it was difficult to see the horses actions with the weather, this race was run a little more genuinely. Meurice who had old Melbourne form and was 1st up after a switch to the Waterhouse stable ended up the victor from Zizou and Shaft. Only half a length separated the placegetters. What does this tell us? Unfortunately, I am of the opinion that the conditions were very extreme and the race possibly was not a true indication of each horses ability.
Lets look at my early 5 selections. Danehill Smile remains undefeated but looks as though her campaign has ended as of today, unfortunately for connections.
Murtajill has come back well and the blinkers at his 2nd up start definitely switched him on. My initial opinion of that 3 length win was that it was good without being brilliant. My reasons for that were that the opposition seemed to be made up of a tired horse(Husson Lightning) and the 2nd tier 2yo's.
Mimi Lebrock resumed on Saturday and whilst she didn't have her sprinting shoes on, she did not disappoint too much, other than I expected her to be ridden a bit more aggressively. It looks as though she will not make the field and she has not been nominated for this Saturday as it would have meant her racing 3 weeks in a row into the Slipper. Whilst on this, it is a disgrace that money from the Magic Millions and Inglis Classics races are not counted towards the Slipper. The fact is 2 of the most impressive 2yo's this season, Danehill Smile and Mimi Lebrock were not going to make the field as the prizemoney they won from those races was not counted towards deciding the order of entry.
With Danehill Smile and Mimi Lebrock seemingly out, Murtajill becomes top choice by default.
The next 2 were the QLD roughies. Miss Watagan has performed honestly but as mentioned in the original article, needed to find a couple of lengths from her Brisbane form to compete with the better 2yo's. She hasn't quite found enough but I believe she needs to be ridden aggressively as she was in her 1st Sydney start. The trainer is an amateur and is a truck driver (shades of Joe Janiak) and I believe this filly given the right training and riding can develop into a good filly perhaps over the Brisbane winter as she will not be paying the late nomination fee for the Slipper. Whether the current trainer is the right trainer that will be seen in the future.
The other filly, Chinchilla Rose did us proud at her 1st Sydney start winning well at double figure odds. However I rate that race at least 3 lengths behind Murtajill's performance on the same day. I do not think she has improved enough from her Brisbane debut. It was only her 2nd start and she had a 5 week break, so she may improve but making up 3 lengths will be a hard task. She is nominated for this coming Saturday and it will be interesting to see whether she has improved further.
What of the others? I originally didn't rate the Melbourne form as the Blue Diamond field, I felt, was quite weak. However, as I have mentioned the runs of Sleek Chassis and Zizou were full of merit. After their runs on Saturday, I would have to say that they are up to winning the Slipper. Press the Button, Shaft, Forensics and Meurice, however, I would prefer to see one more time. Unfortunately, we will not get a chance.
In summary the Slipper has become full of chances and the barrier draw and run of the race will become crucial. There may even be a late chance forcing its way into the field by winning this Saturday and doing a Stratum from 2005.
Stay tuned for the pre-race analysis of Saturday's races on http://www.intelligentpunter.com.au/
Any feedback is welcome to info@intelligentpunter.com.au
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Monday, March 12, 2007
Re-cap on Super Saturday.
What a great day of racing from Caulfield with the stirring finishes in the Guineas and Newmarket and a superb Australia Cup.
Before reviewing the races I would like to touch on a factor from the previous article titled "The Fallacy of Sectional Times". In an average pace race all horses get their chance. As the pace is slowed weaker horses get closer to the better horses. When the pace becomes very slow the weaker horses become threats to the better horses. The reason for this is that when the pace is slow a horse conserves its energy whether it is in the lead or out the back. In reality the race can become a glorified barrier trial (how many times have you seen a horse fly home in a barrier trial or trackwork but it cannot repeat such a sprint in a race?). When the pace is average or fast a good horse will maintain his finishing section much better than a weaker horse. To give you an example we will say they are racing at Randwick and assume that on perfect conditions the fastest last 600m able to be run is 34 seconds. Lets assume there is an Open Class race with a Class 3 horse engaged. If they run to their abilities, then in a fast pace the Open horse can run his last 600m in 35 seconds, whilst the Class 3 horse will take 36 seconds. In an average pace the the Open horse will be able to run 34.5 seconds whilst the Class 3 horse will run 35 seconds. In a slow pace the Open horse can run 34 seconds (the limit for the course), whilst the class 3 can run 34.2 seconds. If in all situations the class 3 horse is 1.5 lengths in front of the Open horse at the 600m mark, then the open class horse will win in a fast and average pace but the class 3 horse can win in a slow pace. (All the times suggested are hypothetical but are realistic). In other words there is a limit to the top speed of a horse. All horses will hit their top speed if they have a leisurely run before being asked to sprint. The difference between the top speed of a Group horse and a restricted horse in this scenario is much smaller than you think.
Now on to the Group 1's.
The Newmarket was an enthralling race. Gold Edition to race on the outside of Dance Hero. I honestly thought Dance Hero may crack the filly but he obviously wasn't fit enough 1st up. As it turned out the super filly that Gold Edition is, she cracked the older proven Group 1 male! I don't think I've seen a tougher 3yo filly over the short courses. (I may have forgotten something, so please let me know if you can come up with one.)
Gold Edition looked home but lurking just behind her was the tough mare Miss Andretti. She looked under pressure to haul in the filly but knuckled down like the star she is and got home in time. I believe Miss Andretti is capable of running at least a mile. She is actually bred to get 2400m to 3200m easily-she has Nijinsky, Ela-Mana-Mou, Marooned(by Mill Reef) and Alydar in her pedigree who were all world class stayers. (I remember Freedman saying that he thought Makybe Diva was so good that he wouldn't be surprised that if he aimed her for a Newmarket she could win it. I wonder if they have a similar thought in reverse with Miss Andretti. If you see her entered in the Melbourne Cup I'd suggest a small nibble at what should be huge odds).
It is a shame that the Newmarket is only a week before the Coolmore Classic because I believe that the 1st 2 home in the Newmarket would have had a huge chance in the Coolmore. In Miss Andretti's only 1400m run in Melbourne in the spring of 2006 she should have won a Group 1. Gold Edition on the other hand would be a slight risk of running the 1500m of the Coolmore. However, I have no doubt she could win an Open Group race over 1400m. The tactics employed on Gold Edition in her defeat by Mutawaajid were almost unbelievable. Allowing him to cross and dictate, turning it into a slow pace made it extremely difficult for Gold Edition to beat Mutawaajid. In line with my opening paragraph the slower pace allowed an inferior horse to beat her. Apparently they thought she was underdone for the race. I don't believe that as she had a lead up run and should have been the fittest horse there. I believe it was an error in judgement on behalf of the trainer and jockey. Perhaps they thought Mutawaajid would pressure her too much in the lead and set an above average pace and that is why they decided to hold her back. This thought is flawed as the stronger of the 2 horses is obvious for all to see and I'm surprised they didn't have enough confidence in the ability of Gold Edition.
The Australian Guineas was hyped as the match up of the year with Miss Finland vs Haradasun, with the Derby winner Efficient going around. We didn't get the finish we wanted to see. It was still a thrilling finish with Miss Finland finally overcoming Casino Prince and Jokers Wild.
How did such a finish eventuate? Miss Finland, Haradasun and Efficient are by far the superior 3 year olds in Melbourne. However a slow pace eventuated which bought the 3 stars back to the field. Jokers Wild is a consistent horse but his NZ form does not look to be up to the standard of the Melbourne stars. Casino Prince whilst honest and perhaps picking up his form could not have realistically been expected to challenge the other 3.
If we look at the race, Jokers Wild tracked the leaders and was a good 1.5 lengths in front of Casino Prince who raced on the inside of Miss Finland. 1.5 lengths further back was Haradasun and another 2 lengths back was Efficient. With the slow pace Jokers Wild was able to stay in the battle all the way to the line. Miss Finland had a slightly superior sprint of the slow pace and was able to pick him up. Casino Prince was almost able to sprint as quickly as Miss Finland and just went under. Haradasun and Efficient held their ground or lost a touch against Miss Finland on the line.
The disappointment for me in the race was the lack of a tactical battle. It was evident from the speed map that there was little speed engaged and I had assumed all involved would have known about this. I had then assumed that Haradasun sitting behind Miss Finland would put the pressure on early and make it into a solid test. I'm not sure whether it is trainer tactics, jockey ability or horse ability that is to be blamed for this. Haradasun had little chance the way the race developed. Apparently the horse is still having feet problems and Haradasun should be forgiven. However, I would hope sense prevails and they turn him out for the spring. Talk of a Sydney campaign can only be justified for the sake of the egos of those involved. The horse should be given time to get over any niggling problems. Efficient had no hope with the way the race developed and obviously didn't have the fitness to make a move and put on early pressure. With a 2 run autumn campaign he should be forgiven and should come back better as a spring 4yo.
The Australian Cup looked a great race on paper and that is how it turned out. Just to explain last years bolter result where Roman Arch got up over Candy Vale-they ran their 1st 1400m more than 2 seconds slower than this year and ran their last 600m almost 1 second faster last year. In other words last year there was a very slow pace and it bought the weaker horses up to the better horses and hence the result.
In this years Cup there was an average perhaps slightly below average pace but Pompeii Ruler showed a great bit of acceleration to race away although very green, hanging in to end up along the rail. Marasco was also very green and hung every which way possible. Pompeii Ruler was beautifully ridden by Newitt and is a horse that is on the way to stardom. He is only 4 years old and as mentioned is still quite immature and green. I am worried about the proposed trip to Dubai. I hope he copes with the travel as the horse doesn't seem to be fully there mentally yet. The only positive is that they have decide against the 2400m in Dubai and gone for the 1777m race. A better option in my opinion would have been the BMW in Sydney (at his mercy) and back in the Spring for Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and other Group 1's. He would only be 5yo next year and Dubai could have waited till then. However the money is huge in Dubai and I hope he does well and comes back safe and sound.
Marasco was poorly ridden. He had a beautiful spot just beyond midfield for the opening half of the race. What happens next is a bit of a mystery as the camera angles are not clear, but seemingly by the 700m Marasco looks to be left flatfooted and is running last alongside El Segundo. Perhaps he was checked. Perhaps the horse was flatfooted. Or perhaps the jockey was left stranded when everyone around him took off. He finished off brilliantly and had he gone straight would have gone closer. Like Pompeii Ruler he is a lightly raced 4yo and still has a lot to learn. Both look likely to improve by the spring and some great clashes should ensue.
There was a Group 1 upset the previous weekend at Warwick Farm when He's No Pie Eater upset WFA stars Desert War, Mentality and Eremein. How? Surprisingly a slow pace eventuated which is unusual for Desert War. As mentioned in the opening paragraph this bought He's No Pie Eater closer to the better horses. Having said that, He's No Pie Eater was resuming and may have improved over the summer. I would caution about going overboard about him although I have seen the nominations for this Saturdays Ranvet and they do not look overly strong with an injury cloud over Eremein.
To end on, I would like to reference a previous article on the relevance of weights. Many people had mentioned Any Suggestion as being well weighted in the Newmarket, meeting Miss Andretti 7kg better for being beaten 1.25 lengths at their previous meeting. The other weight turnaround not mentioned as much was that Magnus and Shadoways were meeting Undue 1.5kg better for being beaten 0.6 and 0.9 lengths respectively at their previous meeting. The result of the Newmarket is just one example that backs up my claim of weights being insignificant.
Any comments are welcome at info@intelligentpunter.com.au
For my latest analysis on upcoming races please visit www.intelligentpunter.com.au
Before reviewing the races I would like to touch on a factor from the previous article titled "The Fallacy of Sectional Times". In an average pace race all horses get their chance. As the pace is slowed weaker horses get closer to the better horses. When the pace becomes very slow the weaker horses become threats to the better horses. The reason for this is that when the pace is slow a horse conserves its energy whether it is in the lead or out the back. In reality the race can become a glorified barrier trial (how many times have you seen a horse fly home in a barrier trial or trackwork but it cannot repeat such a sprint in a race?). When the pace is average or fast a good horse will maintain his finishing section much better than a weaker horse. To give you an example we will say they are racing at Randwick and assume that on perfect conditions the fastest last 600m able to be run is 34 seconds. Lets assume there is an Open Class race with a Class 3 horse engaged. If they run to their abilities, then in a fast pace the Open horse can run his last 600m in 35 seconds, whilst the Class 3 horse will take 36 seconds. In an average pace the the Open horse will be able to run 34.5 seconds whilst the Class 3 horse will run 35 seconds. In a slow pace the Open horse can run 34 seconds (the limit for the course), whilst the class 3 can run 34.2 seconds. If in all situations the class 3 horse is 1.5 lengths in front of the Open horse at the 600m mark, then the open class horse will win in a fast and average pace but the class 3 horse can win in a slow pace. (All the times suggested are hypothetical but are realistic). In other words there is a limit to the top speed of a horse. All horses will hit their top speed if they have a leisurely run before being asked to sprint. The difference between the top speed of a Group horse and a restricted horse in this scenario is much smaller than you think.
Now on to the Group 1's.
The Newmarket was an enthralling race. Gold Edition to race on the outside of Dance Hero. I honestly thought Dance Hero may crack the filly but he obviously wasn't fit enough 1st up. As it turned out the super filly that Gold Edition is, she cracked the older proven Group 1 male! I don't think I've seen a tougher 3yo filly over the short courses. (I may have forgotten something, so please let me know if you can come up with one.)
Gold Edition looked home but lurking just behind her was the tough mare Miss Andretti. She looked under pressure to haul in the filly but knuckled down like the star she is and got home in time. I believe Miss Andretti is capable of running at least a mile. She is actually bred to get 2400m to 3200m easily-she has Nijinsky, Ela-Mana-Mou, Marooned(by Mill Reef) and Alydar in her pedigree who were all world class stayers. (I remember Freedman saying that he thought Makybe Diva was so good that he wouldn't be surprised that if he aimed her for a Newmarket she could win it. I wonder if they have a similar thought in reverse with Miss Andretti. If you see her entered in the Melbourne Cup I'd suggest a small nibble at what should be huge odds).
It is a shame that the Newmarket is only a week before the Coolmore Classic because I believe that the 1st 2 home in the Newmarket would have had a huge chance in the Coolmore. In Miss Andretti's only 1400m run in Melbourne in the spring of 2006 she should have won a Group 1. Gold Edition on the other hand would be a slight risk of running the 1500m of the Coolmore. However, I have no doubt she could win an Open Group race over 1400m. The tactics employed on Gold Edition in her defeat by Mutawaajid were almost unbelievable. Allowing him to cross and dictate, turning it into a slow pace made it extremely difficult for Gold Edition to beat Mutawaajid. In line with my opening paragraph the slower pace allowed an inferior horse to beat her. Apparently they thought she was underdone for the race. I don't believe that as she had a lead up run and should have been the fittest horse there. I believe it was an error in judgement on behalf of the trainer and jockey. Perhaps they thought Mutawaajid would pressure her too much in the lead and set an above average pace and that is why they decided to hold her back. This thought is flawed as the stronger of the 2 horses is obvious for all to see and I'm surprised they didn't have enough confidence in the ability of Gold Edition.
The Australian Guineas was hyped as the match up of the year with Miss Finland vs Haradasun, with the Derby winner Efficient going around. We didn't get the finish we wanted to see. It was still a thrilling finish with Miss Finland finally overcoming Casino Prince and Jokers Wild.
How did such a finish eventuate? Miss Finland, Haradasun and Efficient are by far the superior 3 year olds in Melbourne. However a slow pace eventuated which bought the 3 stars back to the field. Jokers Wild is a consistent horse but his NZ form does not look to be up to the standard of the Melbourne stars. Casino Prince whilst honest and perhaps picking up his form could not have realistically been expected to challenge the other 3.
If we look at the race, Jokers Wild tracked the leaders and was a good 1.5 lengths in front of Casino Prince who raced on the inside of Miss Finland. 1.5 lengths further back was Haradasun and another 2 lengths back was Efficient. With the slow pace Jokers Wild was able to stay in the battle all the way to the line. Miss Finland had a slightly superior sprint of the slow pace and was able to pick him up. Casino Prince was almost able to sprint as quickly as Miss Finland and just went under. Haradasun and Efficient held their ground or lost a touch against Miss Finland on the line.
The disappointment for me in the race was the lack of a tactical battle. It was evident from the speed map that there was little speed engaged and I had assumed all involved would have known about this. I had then assumed that Haradasun sitting behind Miss Finland would put the pressure on early and make it into a solid test. I'm not sure whether it is trainer tactics, jockey ability or horse ability that is to be blamed for this. Haradasun had little chance the way the race developed. Apparently the horse is still having feet problems and Haradasun should be forgiven. However, I would hope sense prevails and they turn him out for the spring. Talk of a Sydney campaign can only be justified for the sake of the egos of those involved. The horse should be given time to get over any niggling problems. Efficient had no hope with the way the race developed and obviously didn't have the fitness to make a move and put on early pressure. With a 2 run autumn campaign he should be forgiven and should come back better as a spring 4yo.
The Australian Cup looked a great race on paper and that is how it turned out. Just to explain last years bolter result where Roman Arch got up over Candy Vale-they ran their 1st 1400m more than 2 seconds slower than this year and ran their last 600m almost 1 second faster last year. In other words last year there was a very slow pace and it bought the weaker horses up to the better horses and hence the result.
In this years Cup there was an average perhaps slightly below average pace but Pompeii Ruler showed a great bit of acceleration to race away although very green, hanging in to end up along the rail. Marasco was also very green and hung every which way possible. Pompeii Ruler was beautifully ridden by Newitt and is a horse that is on the way to stardom. He is only 4 years old and as mentioned is still quite immature and green. I am worried about the proposed trip to Dubai. I hope he copes with the travel as the horse doesn't seem to be fully there mentally yet. The only positive is that they have decide against the 2400m in Dubai and gone for the 1777m race. A better option in my opinion would have been the BMW in Sydney (at his mercy) and back in the Spring for Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and other Group 1's. He would only be 5yo next year and Dubai could have waited till then. However the money is huge in Dubai and I hope he does well and comes back safe and sound.
Marasco was poorly ridden. He had a beautiful spot just beyond midfield for the opening half of the race. What happens next is a bit of a mystery as the camera angles are not clear, but seemingly by the 700m Marasco looks to be left flatfooted and is running last alongside El Segundo. Perhaps he was checked. Perhaps the horse was flatfooted. Or perhaps the jockey was left stranded when everyone around him took off. He finished off brilliantly and had he gone straight would have gone closer. Like Pompeii Ruler he is a lightly raced 4yo and still has a lot to learn. Both look likely to improve by the spring and some great clashes should ensue.
There was a Group 1 upset the previous weekend at Warwick Farm when He's No Pie Eater upset WFA stars Desert War, Mentality and Eremein. How? Surprisingly a slow pace eventuated which is unusual for Desert War. As mentioned in the opening paragraph this bought He's No Pie Eater closer to the better horses. Having said that, He's No Pie Eater was resuming and may have improved over the summer. I would caution about going overboard about him although I have seen the nominations for this Saturdays Ranvet and they do not look overly strong with an injury cloud over Eremein.
To end on, I would like to reference a previous article on the relevance of weights. Many people had mentioned Any Suggestion as being well weighted in the Newmarket, meeting Miss Andretti 7kg better for being beaten 1.25 lengths at their previous meeting. The other weight turnaround not mentioned as much was that Magnus and Shadoways were meeting Undue 1.5kg better for being beaten 0.6 and 0.9 lengths respectively at their previous meeting. The result of the Newmarket is just one example that backs up my claim of weights being insignificant.
Any comments are welcome at info@intelligentpunter.com.au
For my latest analysis on upcoming races please visit www.intelligentpunter.com.au
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