Golden Slipper Update

With 2 weeks out from the Slipper, it is time to update my post from the 19th February 2007.

Saturday at Rosehill was supposed to clear the Slipper chances. It has done the exact opposite. The fillies race left me perplexed. What seemed a race with plenty of speed ended up being a stroll. Run slow enough to be a considered a glorified barrier trial. They ran their first 600m in 36.7 and flew home the last 600m in 33.8 sec on a track rated dead. You didn't have to look at the stopwatch though. You only had to see Miss Watagan being pulled back hard in the lead. Just off her, Mimi Lebrock was being held back tightly and the speedy Illuminates didn't want to take up the running.

As mentioned in my previous article "Re-cap on Super Saturday" when there is such a slow pace the best horses do not necessarily win. This was supposed to be the opportunity to see how the old Sydney and Magic Millions form (Mimi Lebrock) lined up against the Melbourne form (Sleek Chassis) and the recent Sydney form (Forensics). Instead these 3 finished 3rd, 4th and 5th behind Press The Button and Hurried Choice. All five finished within 1.2 Lengths. What does this tell us? Basically we should forget the race as a form reference unfortunately. It has only told us which horse can sprint fastest off a slow speed.

Two races later the Colts & Geldings had their turn and this was going to help us line up the Sydney (Shaft) and Melbourne form (Zizou). Unfortunately, the weather had turned by this race and the rain was falling quite heavily with a very strong wind. It would have been uncomfortable conditions for relatively inexperienced youngsters. Relying on times, as it was difficult to see the horses actions with the weather, this race was run a little more genuinely. Meurice who had old Melbourne form and was 1st up after a switch to the Waterhouse stable ended up the victor from Zizou and Shaft. Only half a length separated the placegetters. What does this tell us? Unfortunately, I am of the opinion that the conditions were very extreme and the race possibly was not a true indication of each horses ability.

Lets look at my early 5 selections. Danehill Smile remains undefeated but looks as though her campaign has ended as of today, unfortunately for connections.

Murtajill has come back well and the blinkers at his 2nd up start definitely switched him on. My initial opinion of that 3 length win was that it was good without being brilliant. My reasons for that were that the opposition seemed to be made up of a tired horse(Husson Lightning) and the 2nd tier 2yo's.

Mimi Lebrock resumed on Saturday and whilst she didn't have her sprinting shoes on, she did not disappoint too much, other than I expected her to be ridden a bit more aggressively. It looks as though she will not make the field and she has not been nominated for this Saturday as it would have meant her racing 3 weeks in a row into the Slipper. Whilst on this, it is a disgrace that money from the Magic Millions and Inglis Classics races are not counted towards the Slipper. The fact is 2 of the most impressive 2yo's this season, Danehill Smile and Mimi Lebrock were not going to make the field as the prizemoney they won from those races was not counted towards deciding the order of entry.

With Danehill Smile and Mimi Lebrock seemingly out, Murtajill becomes top choice by default.

The next 2 were the QLD roughies. Miss Watagan has performed honestly but as mentioned in the original article, needed to find a couple of lengths from her Brisbane form to compete with the better 2yo's. She hasn't quite found enough but I believe she needs to be ridden aggressively as she was in her 1st Sydney start. The trainer is an amateur and is a truck driver (shades of Joe Janiak) and I believe this filly given the right training and riding can develop into a good filly perhaps over the Brisbane winter as she will not be paying the late nomination fee for the Slipper. Whether the current trainer is the right trainer that will be seen in the future.

The other filly, Chinchilla Rose did us proud at her 1st Sydney start winning well at double figure odds. However I rate that race at least 3 lengths behind Murtajill's performance on the same day. I do not think she has improved enough from her Brisbane debut. It was only her 2nd start and she had a 5 week break, so she may improve but making up 3 lengths will be a hard task. She is nominated for this coming Saturday and it will be interesting to see whether she has improved further.

What of the others? I originally didn't rate the Melbourne form as the Blue Diamond field, I felt, was quite weak. However, as I have mentioned the runs of Sleek Chassis and Zizou were full of merit. After their runs on Saturday, I would have to say that they are up to winning the Slipper. Press the Button, Shaft, Forensics and Meurice, however, I would prefer to see one more time. Unfortunately, we will not get a chance.

In summary the Slipper has become full of chances and the barrier draw and run of the race will become crucial. There may even be a late chance forcing its way into the field by winning this Saturday and doing a Stratum from 2005.

Stay tuned for the pre-race analysis of Saturday's races on http://www.intelligentpunter.com.au/

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