The fallacy of sectional times.

I am already on record as stating that weight is insignificant when analysing form. I will now state that for the most part, sectional times are also irrelevant when analysing form. Before I start, let me state that after abandoning weights in the mid 80's I started looking at times. It didn't take me long to realise that a 1.08 for 1200m at Doomben was not necessarily good enough to win a race run in 1.10 for 1200m at Rosehill. With the availability soon after of sectional times I spent many hours over years trying to understand sectional times.

The reasons for my statement regarding sectional times are numerous but I will concentrate on two main points. Firstly, there are a number of tracks where the sectional times are inaccurate and/or inconsistent. Even with the introduction of equitimes in Melbourne and Sydney there are inconsistencies. In particular in Sydney, where the published times vary from the equitimes on a regular basis. You only have to look at the official time and sectional time for a Sydney race and then compare it with the equitimes sectionals to see that one or both cannot be correct.

To understand the second point I will point out the obvious. That is, that in a slowly run race the leaders are favoured, as all horses are conserving their energy fairly much equally and if there is not a huge difference between the field, the horses that are closer to the lead have the advantage. Conversely, in a fast pace race the horses that are away from the leading pack and have cover are favoured, as the horses that are in the leading pack or have no cover are using up energy, whilst the others with cover or back in the field will have conserved their energy allowing them to finish strongly.

There are then two anomalies (there are many more actually but I'm sure you don't want to read a thesis). These are the fast pace races that are won by horses leading, and slow run races that are won by horses from back in the field.

The fast pace races that are won by horses that are leading can be explained in a number of ways. The horse could be a star and a couple of classes above the opposition. Or the horse is better than the opposition but the opposition is very average to weak. In this case, on paper the run looks full of merit but when studied closer it is revealed that it is a risk of repeating the performance at its next start against better opposition.

The slow pace races won by a horse from well back, or which are highlighted by a horse storming home from an impossible position are responsible for one of the most common misconceptions I have seen in racing. There are also a number of ways to explain this. The horse may be a star and is a couple of classes above its opposition. Or the horse is better than the opposition, but the opposition is very average or weak. Most importantly if the race was run at a slow pace, the race becomes almost a barrier trial. The horse out the back has dawdled out of the barriers, hasn't spent a penny for the duration of the trip, peels off the horses in front of it and storms home in the fastest sectional of the day. Many will make this a horse to follow. I would advise you to look closer at the way the horse races.

The thinking of the average punter is that this horse has produced stunning sectionals off a slow pace. Just imagine what it could do off a faster pace! The answer to this is not so easy and this is where you need to know more about the horse. Some horses enjoy slowly run races because they do not have much stamina and can be saved for a sprint from the 300m mark. This is what you see in barrier trials and trackwork. Many horses loaf around and then sprint home the final 400m or 200m in stunning sectionals, demanding that we all be impressed. Once they are in a race with average pace or a fast pace they are so busy expending energy to keep up with the field that when it comes to the business end they have nothing left. Punters are left scratching their heads as the horse fails to run on.

The challenge is that the next time a horse puts up a seemingly good run against the pace of the race you need to determine whether it has genuine merit or whether it was false merit due to the weakness of the opposition. This is not necessarily an easy task but one you need to master.

The next time a horse runs a sizzling sectional at trackwork or the fastest sectional on race day, do your homework and don't believe the hype.

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