Weight Over Matter

Why Weight Doesn’t Matter.

In the 1970’s and 1980’s the Australian horse racing scene was all abuzz with the Don Scott method of weight handicapping. Growing up through this era, I was caught up in this method of finding a winner. As I grew older and more experienced and saw many weighted certainties not only getting beaten but well beaten, I started to do my own research. I started looking into whether the weight of a jockey really mattered in the outcome of a horse race.

Using my Science/Mathematical based degrees I started to look at this scientifically. I will try and simplify this as I may have gone overboard at the time! If you had a machine and loaded it with different weights you could see that extra weight would require more revs to get to the same speed as with a lighter weight. But translating this to horses, there is no way we can measure the effect of weight on a single horse. A horse will not perform exactly the same from one gallop to another so trying to calculate the effect of extra weight on a single particular horse is useless as it can not be measured with any degree of confidence.

Lets get to specifics regarding a horse and the weight it carries. An average racing thoroughbred horse weighs approximately 500 kgs. Lets say the Average weight of a jockey would be 54 kgs. Meaning that on average a horse must carry approximately 10.8% of its body weight.

A horse weighted on 50 kgs would have to carry 10% of its body weight and a horse carrying 58 kgs would have to carry 11.6% of its body weight.

If we say that the average male human weighs 80 kgs then the equivalent weights would be 8 kgs 8.64 kgs and 9.28 kgs for 10%, 10.8% and 11.6% of his body weight respectively.

Do you think a man carrying 9.28 kgs can run as fast as a man carrying 8 kgs? I think your answer will be, no way! But before you dismiss this, remember that a cereal box can contain anything from 500g to 1.5 kgs. We are also assuming that these males are fit. Still you would probably say that the 1.28kgs extra would make a difference.

When comparing the weights between horses and humans we must remember a number of factors to make the comparisons more applicable. Humans stand on 2 feet and need to carry the weight on their back whilst upright or perhaps hold it in front of them. Horses stand on 4 legs and cover well over 2.5 metres. This means the weight of a jockey that they have to carry is actually distributed not only on 4 legs but over a larger area.

It is hard to then make a direct comparison of body weight carried by a horse or a man but using only the fact that a horse has double the number of legs then we can say that a horse carrying 10% of its body weight is similar to a man carrying 5% of its body weight (Even this is conservative as we have already mentioned that a horse distributes the weight over a larger area whereas a man is carrying it whilst upright with the full weight being subjected to the force of gravity).

Therefore a horse carrying 50, 54 or 58 kgs is equivalent to a fit 80 kg human male carrying 4, 4.32 or 4.64 kgs. Do you think a man carrying 4.64 kgs can run as fast as a man carrying 4 kgs? You may still be saying no. Remember that the true comparison would mean the weight difference for a human would probably be less than 640 grams and most probably less than 500 grams (a tub of butter). Also remember that this 640 grams is equivalent to 8 kgs on a horse. How many times do you see an 8 kg turnaround between horses?

Why then do they use handicapping by weights?

The simple answer is because they always have. Like many things in the universe we do things because we have always done things. Handicapping by weight started hundreds of years ago and those who like tradition will never change it. By the way, I am not suggesting to get rid of weight handicapping. The WFA scale was set to allow for the difference in size of horses between ages and sexes. Perhaps all racing should be at the WFA scale.

Then what matters in a race?

Speed, pace and run of the race. Pace makes a race. A slowly run race will in the large majority of cases, suit the horses up on the pace. A fast run race will in the large majority of cases suit the horses well off the lead. Horses that have pressure applied to them whilst leading will find it difficult to win. Horses caught wide without cover are unlikely to win. A clear uninterrupted run obviously helps a horse run at its best. There are so many factors in running that determine a horse’s chance of winning that the weight becomes insignificant.

Why do a lot of racing analysts talk about weight turnarounds?

Because that is how they were taught and that is the way they have always assessed their form. Whenever I hear or read an analyst, trainer or jockey talking about Horse A meeting Horse B on 4 kg better terms or even 1 kg better terms, I have a good laugh. I have never seen any evidence that weight turnarounds make a difference. If anyone has a list of weight turnarounds that actually work then I’d be interested in seeing them. But remember you must include all the weight turnarounds that didn’t work.


Do I have any evidence that weight doesn’t matter?

Well, not anymore. I kept statistics in the 1980’s of weight turnarounds between 2 horses in a race from previous meetings and seeing which horse got home in front. The results were almost 50% for each. Examples of weight turnarounds having no bearing on the outcome of a race occur every day, I just don’t have the time or need to look for them, anymore.

There is no way you can truly handicap a horse. My example of male humans above, carrying different weights is assuming that the men are equal in ability. In this case significant extra weight will make a difference. But there is no way we can determine how good a horse is and then how many kilos will need to be added to slow it down. If anyone has a scientific study that shows that a horse slows down by a certain amount for each extra kilo of weight, I would again be happy to read this.

What about the world ratings scales?

Most of these Timeform ratings are so misleading. They are called Timeform but are basically based on class and weights. I pay little attention to these type of ratings. Why? They tend to rate all races of the same level similarly. In other words all Open Handicaps at a certain racetrack are rated practically the same. This is the 1st flaw as we all know that races of the same level vary significantly. The 2nd flaw is that the rating is then based on the weight the horse has carried in that race.

In closing, forget about looking at weights. There are so many factors that determine the outcome of a race that the weight it has to carry is as trivial as the colour of the jockey silks.

Any comments feel free to email at info@intelligentpunter.com.au

To see our latest analysis visit www.intelligentpunter.com.au